There was a time when discussions between MMA aficionados revolved around topics such as "what will be the next 'king of the ring' to fall"?
But now the hardcore fans of the sport try to run an "exercise" of "futurology" and debate about which will be the next MMA organization to go bankrupt, even though they try to face the monopoly established by the UFC.
So, I'm going to enter the spirit of the 2019 year and look at the current situation and the likelihood of bankruptcy for some of today's top MMA franchises.
These shows would be those that, according to the experts, could collapse in the following order: first PFL, according to Rizin, third Bellator and then ONE. (some disagree and bet the ONE will go bankrupt before the organization chaired by Scott Coker).
The second biggest MMA promotion in the world today, Bellator has a contract running with DAZN until 2020.
DAZN is a platform that broadcasts Bellator 'live shows' for the streaming service and pretends to be some kind of 'Netflix' sports or something. Although its strong presence abroad is good, DAZN is not very popular in the US and its target audience is even the Eurasian sports fan.
Still, DAZN is paying about $ 33 million a year to Bellator on a contract that can be renewed for another two years.
On the other hand, Bellator ratings in the US fell between 25-34% last year with more expenses and there are rumors growing stronger that the show could be sold soon.
MMA organization based in Singapore, the ONE Championship is certainly bigger than the UFC in some selected markets in Southeast Asia.
The franchise averaged 11 millions of viewers per event on 2018. Like Bellator, the ONE also signed a contract with DAZN, which guarantees it a lifelong support.
On the other hand, it seems that the MMA show that will dominate the Chinese market will be even the UFC.
It is not hard to remember that the Chinese market is the most promising in Asia and the ONE also seems to have failed again in trying to dominate the Japanese market but may still remain in Myanmar and Cambodia.
Rizin also is not rated very well, despite spending almost 10 million dollars to bring Floyd Mawyeather Jr to his 'New Year' show.
And if Fuji TV decides that Rizin is no longer worthy to run, Nobuyuki Sakakibara's promotion will still be able to sign a contract with DAZN too, which will ensure the show stays alive for a while.
The big problem with streaming and pay-per-view services in Asia is that people in that part of the world simply do not pay much for media content.
The Asian MMA market does not have more than 50 millions of people paying a little more than $ 100 per month for cable packages as it does in the US market.
Sponsors and / or advertisers are also not spending a lot for a 30 seconds 'spot' during any sporting event in Asia, unlike the US, where they do this annually, especially during the finals of the Superbowl, which is the largest sporting event and television audience in that country.
The most unstable organization to be even the Professional Fighters League (PFL), which made history in MMA as the first competition in the playoff style of the sport.
Even having paid $ 1 million to the winner of each division in their 2018 final held on New Year's Day and held at Madison Square Garden in New York, many see no more than the end of next season.
It is explained ... although its second season now in 2019 has already been funded, its long-term prospects look really somber, according to some US MMA journalists.
These claim that PFL would be "doing worse" than the WSOF, the organization to which it succeeded.
But that's how MMA grows and fighters get paid.
Prosecutors first "throw their money down the drain" in the hope that their show will become the next UFC, and fighters are paid well-within the reality of every promotion-until those events face inevitable deaths.
Another option is for you to remain small like Shooto in Japan and then you can try to "live forever".
So instead of trying to figure out who will "die" first, let's take advantage of all the incredible fights that every different promotion has to offer.
"The fear of death comes from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any moment. "
* Text from the collaborator Oriosvaldo Costa. | Written in 9 / 1 / 2019